Insight Tribune

WNBA playoff projections: Will Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever make the cut?

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WNBA playoff projections: Will Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever make the cut?


The WNBA is already full speed ahead into the second half of the season, and it is going to be a sprint to the finish. Regular-season action ends in exactly one month, with each team packing 12-14 games in the final stretch.

As players re-acclimate to following the Olympic break and make one last push for the postseason, here is a look at which teams I project will make the playoffs as well as a to-do list for each team to focus on to be in the best possible position come playoff time.

Playoff-bound

1. New York Liberty

Stay the course

The Liberty remind me of the Aces at this point last season. New York is the best team in the league, and a couple of bad games or a bad week won’t change that, just as an August swoon for Las Vegas didn’t prevent the Aces from repeating as champs. It will be interesting to see if the Liberty choose to chase the single-season wins record of 34, set by the Aces last year. New York can also tie the best winning percentage of all-time — the Houston Comets won 90 percent of their games in 1998 — by winning out, but that might be a Pyrrhic victory if the Liberty tire themselves out and don’t cap off the season with a ring. Just ask the 2016 Golden State Warriors.

2. Minnesota Lynx

Inject a little variety

The Lynx are loaded with jump shooters, but they don’t put a ton of pressure on the rim, as they’re last in points in the paint and free-throw rate. That makes them too reliant on the 3-point shot for a long series, even when they have four rotation players (Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, Bridget Carleton and Cecilia Zandalasini) shooting better than 40 percent from the field. When they shoot below 35.5 percent from 3-point range (league average is 33.8), they’re 5-5. Once defenses lock in on taking away the 3-point line — the Liberty, in particular, seem well-suited to switch everything against them — it’s unclear how the Lynx will generate consistent offense.

3. Connecticut Sun

Diversify the offensive attack

The Sun are essentially the inverse of the Lynx in terms of their offensive profile. They know what they have in the big three of Alyssa Thomas, Bri Jones and DeWanna Bonner. But that trio hasn’t been able to get Connecticut over the hump in the postseason, so the rest of this regular season should serve as reconnaissance for the Sun — they need to figure out which perimeter player, or which perimeter actions, can take over when defenses home in on the frontcourt. Connecticut has leaned into two-player actions with the newly-acquired Marina Mabrey and Thomas, but against the Atlanta Dream defense, which sinks into the paint, the Sun’s spacing still wasn’t good enough. Connecticut needs to create more options in the half court, including increasing its 3-point attempt rate. Currently, 21.2 percent of the Sun’s points come from beyond the arc, which isn’t enough against high-powered offensive teams like the Aces and the Liberty.

4. Las Vegas Aces

Give the stars some rest

The Aces have the bones of the team that won last year’s title, but they haven’t been able to put together that formula consistently. It’s hard to believe that team isn’t still there, especially after watching A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young have such strong showings at the Paris Olympics. The problem is that the Aces have a big hill to climb in the standings, and their players have endured heavy minutes this year, not to mention the extra burden of multiple investigations into the organization. They may not have the gas to make it through an entire playoff run if they maintain the same minutes load. As a result, even though it’s anathema to their stars, as Becky Hammon indicated on The Athletic’s “Women’s Basketball Show” earlier this year, they’ll likely have to participate in some measure of load management. Young already looks worn down after returning from Paris, and she’s arguably Las Vegas’ second-most important player. Even if it hurts them in the standings, the Aces have to take the long view.

5. Seattle Storm

Get Jewell Loyd out of her slump

The Storm’s 3-point shooting has been atrocious in 2024, with a league-worst 29.3 percent from long range. Seattle isn’t exactly bursting with snipers, but when the player who is taking more than a quarter of the team’s 3-point attempts is shooting 26 percent from distance, that’s a problem. The theory was that Jewell Loyd’s shooting percentages would improve with a lighter offensive load given the arrival of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike, but that hasn’t been the case. Nothing looks wrong with Loyd’s form, and she’s still making more than 87 percent of her free throws, so it seems like a matter of time until the worm turns, but the Storm’s offense can’t survive without Loyd becoming more efficient.

6. Indiana Fever

Be more disciplined defensively

The Fever have several defensive concerns, as is to be expected for a team that is second-to-last in defensive rating. Many of those problems have been mitigated by their rip-roaring offense in recent games, but the main issue is how often they send opposing teams to the foul line. It would be easier to forgive opponents’ high free-throw rate if Indiana forced a lot of turnovers — those free throws would simply be a casualty of Indiana’s aggression. However, the Fever rank last in opponent turnover percentage and 11th in defensive free-throw rate. They can afford to be less handsy because they’re not taking the ball anyway; furthermore, per PBP stats, they score 6.7 more points per 100 possessions off of made field goals than made free throws.

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7. Phoenix Mercury

Rebound

Some teams prioritize the defensive glass, others the offensive glass. With the Mercury, corralling boards is a struggle on both ends. They rank 11th in both offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. Some of this is structural, as Phoenix generally plays a bevy of wings and only one true frontcourt player, whether that’s Brittney Griner or Natasha Mack. The Mercury have gotten even smaller with the injury to Rebecca Allen, which has further compromised their possession disadvantage — the opposing team took 14 more field-goal attempts in each of their first two games of the second half. The roster won’t change meaningfully from now until the end of the season; at this point, Phoenix has to commit to boxing out better.

8. Atlanta Dream

Play more optimal lineup combinations

The Dream had a relatively disastrous first half, especially since they gave up control of their 2025 first-round pick in the Allisha Gray trade — that deal was the right move for Atlanta in the long run, but it does negate the value of tanking ahead of what could be a game-changing draft. That’s why the Dream have to maximize their present and make a run at the playoffs despite losing eight straight heading into the Olympic break.

Fortunately for the Dream, Atlanta is finally healthy enough to maximize its roster. Even after winning two in a row, the Dream sit last in the league in offensive rating at 94.8 points per 100 possessions, which would be the worst mark in the WNBA since 2021. The five players who have a positive on-off differential on offense are Gray, Tina Charles, Naz Hillmon, Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada, but they were never available at the same time during the first half. They are now, and Tanisha Wright has started that group in the last two contests, leading to two big wins over Seattle and Connecticut. That’s a unit that complements each other’s skill sets with rim pressure, shooting and perimeter and interior defense, and Atlanta needs to maximize their minutes going forward.

Chasing the post-season

9. Chicago Sky

Unleash Dana Evans

The Sky have five players under contract next season, two of whom figure to be part of the future core in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. Dana Evans will be a restricted free agent, so Chicago can keep her around on a long-term contract if she shows compatibility with the frontcourt duo. Thus far, Lindsay Allen and Chennedy Carter have been far better perimeter complements, but this is Evans’ chance to make her case to stick around. Even if it doesn’t go well, losing isn’t the worst-case scenario for the Sky, which could still land in the lottery if they and the Wings both miss the playoffs.

10. Dallas Wings

Clean up turnovers

At some point, we’ll stop talking about the hole at Dallas’ point guard position. Today is not that day. The Wings had their first-choice starting five available against Connecticut to kick off the second half of the season, and all that led to was 21 turnovers, even worse than their league-leading mark of 16.6 per game. Sevgi Uzun hasn’t been the answer at point guard; 19.4 percent of her possessions result in a turnover, which ranks 135th among all WNBA players. Last year’s three-headed point guard attack of Crystal Dangerfield, Veronica Burton and Odyssey Sims is all on other teams, leaving Uzun and rookie Jacy Sheldon (who really isn’t a natural lead guard) to handle those duties, and struggles have been clear.

In fairness to those rookies, post-ups naturally lead to more turnovers, and Dallas (arguably the biggest team in the league) ranks second in post-ups per game. Nevertheless, many of the Wings’ errors are unforced, potentially a result of their mishmash of players not being on the same page. Perhaps better health will lead to more cohesion because Dallas needs to take care of its possessions to get back into the playoff picture.

11. Los Angeles Sparks

Turn the Paige

Unfortunately for long-suffering Sparks fans who have witnessed their team make three consecutive trips to the lottery, a fourth is in the best long-term interest of the franchise, especially after rookie Cameron Brink tore her ACL in June. L.A. doesn’t have the talent to compete in the playoffs, and it doesn’t make sense to chase the eighth seed for a two-game sweep, especially when the Sparks control their first-round pick this year but not in 2026. Ideally, L.A. features its young players as much as possible and sees what Rickea Jackson, Rae Burrell, Zia Cooke and Li Yueru are capable of before the 2025 offseason, when the Sparks will have to build a roster that can contend. Falling to the bottom of the standings (L.A. is currently two games “ahead” of Washington for the worst record over two years) will enable the Sparks to have the best possible lottery odds for the Paige Bueckers draft. She’s the perfect perimeter complement to their rookie frontcourt of Brink and Jackson.

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12. Washington Mystics

Re-establish Shakira Austin

After an all-rookie campaign in 2022 that culminated in a spot on the Team USA FIBA World Cup roster, Austin hasn’t been healthy enough to recreate that level of play for consistent stretches. Now that she’s back for the Mystics, this is their chance to reacclimate Austin to WNBA play while seeing how she fits next to Aaliyah Edwards. Washington will likely have at least one, if not two, lottery picks in the upcoming draft, and the front office needs to figure out if the franchise needs another frontcourt piece, or if Austin and Edwards can be the fulcrums going forward. The good news for the Mystics is that they have competent guard play in Julie Vanloo and Brittney Sykes, so they can adequately evaluate their frontcourt in that context.

(Photo of  Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)



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