With two weeks to go until Election Day on November 5, a new poll in swing state Nevada indicates a margin-of-error race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump.
According to the survey by AARP, Trump edged Harris 49%-47% in a head-to-head match up for the state’s highly coveted six electoral votes. The Republican presidential nominee holds an even slimmer 47%-46% one-point margin over the Democratic Party standard-bearer in a full ballot with third-party candidates. The survey is the latest of likely voters to indicate a coin-toss race in Nevada.
As he runs to win back the White House, Trump aims to become the first GOP presidential nominee to carry Nevada since then-President George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election victory. Trump narrowly lost the Silver State in both his 2016 White House victory and in his 2020 re-election loss to President Biden.
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Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump smiles during a Hispanic roundtable at Beauty Society on October 12, 2024 in North Las Vegas, Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
The AARP survey, conducted Oct. 8-15 and released on Tuesday, indicates the former president holding a narrow advantage among independent voters. It also points to a large gender gap, with Trump up 18 points among men, while Harris leads women by 15 points.
Recent polls in Nevada and across the nation indicate an erosion of support for Democrats among Latino voters, and according to the AARP poll, Trump enjoys a slight lower-single digit edge over Harris among those voters.
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Of note, the survey doesn’t point to a large education divide.
“There is only a small educational attainment gap, with Harris up 6-points with voters with college degrees, and Trump up 5 among those without degrees,” the survey’s release highlights.
Democratic Presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris walks over to Latino voter Ivett Castillo, who recently lost her mother, during a Univision Town Hall in Las Vegas, Nevada on Thursday, October 10, 2024. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images) (Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
The poll indicates Trump with a seven-point lead among voters 50+, and a four-point advantage among those age 65 and older.
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“With the presidential and senate races so close, appealing to high-turnout older voters should be a major priority for all the campaigns,” AARP Nevada State Director Maria Moore emphasized. “If candidates want to win in Nevada, they should focus on the issues that matter to older voters, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers and bringing down the costs of necessities like food and housing.”
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump recent split image (Getty Images)
Nevada is one of seven swing states whose razor-thin margins decided Biden’s 2020 election victory over Trump and are likely to determine if Harris or Trump wins the 2024 White House race.
The Silver State is not only a presidential battleground – it’s also home to a crucial Senate race that is one of a handful that will decide if the GOP wins back the chamber’s majority.
According to the poll, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen holds a five-point 49%-44% advantage over Republican challenger Sam Brown.
The AARP poll was conducted by the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (Republican) & Impact Research (Democrat). The firms interviewed 1,368 likely voters in Nevada. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.